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Old 1st May 2015, 10:56 AM
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Brian.Samson Brian.Samson is online now
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Join Date: Jun 2009
Member of: Pontefract, Doncaster Airgun Range
Location: Doncaster
Posts: 2,311

Originally Posted by Yorkshiretea View Post
Not really Si, I just like maths, stats and systems plus looking for ways to make things better, if you can make something better then why wouldn't you do that?

It's just good natured chat on here or that's how I see it. It certainly not a anything personal, I'm just a nerd
I know I've tried explaining this to you in the past, but I'll give it one more try...
  • The grading system is NOT a league table, it might look like a league table to you but it isn't.
  • The purpose of the grading system is to look at past performance and try to predict future performance.
  • You will never ever (EVER) be able to accurately predict future performance, so no matter what maths you use the system will usually come up with an answer that isn't 100% accurate all of the time
  • It doesn't have to be 100% accurate - that is why we have bandings - AA, A, B, C
  • There will be cases where a shooter may be banded into the wrong grade, because of the inevitable inaccuracies of any prediction system.
  • This is catered for by encouraging shooters to elect to shoot in a higher grade when they feel the prediction is wrong.

That 'system' as a whole is a reliable system - improving the maths won't make that system better, no matter what maths you use for a prediction system there will always be outliers and anomalies with whatever calculation you use.

There is a way you can improve that system though - by actively encouraging shooters to take the option of electing to shoot a higher grade.

If however you encourage shooters not to do that and only move up a grade when the maths says they've earned it - then what you're doing in fact is making the system worse and not better.

Try to see it as a whole system and don't just focus on the maths behind the percentage - bandings and encouraging people to elect a higher grade are also a part of the system and are of greater relevance than the maths alone.

The 'system' we have in FT of encouraging shooters to elect a higher grade is to initially make a subtle suggestion to them that they should elect a higher grade, if that suggestion goes unheeded then the next phase is when they go up to collect a Trophy we all chant "RINGER" at the presentation. The more people that chant the more obvious it should be to the shooter that perhaps electing a higher grade would earn them more respect from their peers. It works surprisingly well despite the maths

Last edited by Brian.Samson; 1st May 2015 at 11:04 AM.
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